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2022-09-26
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Northern lights venture capital Yellow River: the double-edged sword of capital is the most uncertain variable faced by the industrial robot industry

northern lights venture capital Yellow River: the double-edged sword of capital is the most uncertain variable faced by the industrial robot industry

13:22 source: robot library/

original title: Northern Lights venture capital Yellow River: capital this double-edged sword is the most uncertain variable faced by the industrial robot industry

capital, capital, or capital

although as the most unfamiliar role of most companies in the industry, capital has quietly played a role that cannot be ignored. In fact, even nearly twoorthree years ago, the industrial robot industry did not enter the vision of public capital. Except for a few investors who have long paid attention to the automation and manufacturing industries, the vast majority of investors still focus on popular industries such as TMT and medical treatment. Therefore, even if a small number of capital entry events occurred in the industry, they did not attract much attention. However, with the Internet industry lost its direction and the unbearable primary market valuation, more and more capital began to look for new investment directions and targets. In recent years, it seems that capital has seen the direction ahead and began to pay more attention to this industry that was once completely out of the spotlight. As a result of concern, a large number of capital poured in rapidly and invested heavily in various positions of the industrial chain. For a time, Luoyang was expensive, showing a thriving scene. However, if you observe calmly, you will find that behind this scene, what is hidden deeper is the chaos of various industries, and even profoundly changed the ecology of the industry

although the industrial robot industry sounds very "tall", it is a manufacturing industry to the letter. In other words, it still needs to follow the basic laws of manufacturing. First, the growth of Companies in the industry is slow, and it takes a long time to accumulate before reaching the breaking point; Second, the profit margin is generally low, which cannot be comparable with many high margin industries; Third, the competition is fierce and the entry threshold is not high. Before a large number of capital entered, the industry has been in a natural development stage of exploration, self-adjustment, growth and re exploration. Although the speed of such natural development is slow, it is also reasonable for the industry. There is no state subsidy and capital boost. The leading enterprises that grow out of it are truly market tested and highly competitive enterprises. However, with the intervention of government subsidies and capital, like other domestic industries that receive subsidies and capital intervention, great changes have taken place in the industry ecology. First of all, a group of people with a speculative mentality entered the industry. Their purpose was very clear. They obtained subsidies and left with a handful of money, which created the mess of robot industrial parks everywhere in the first two years and finally chicken feathers everywhere. Government subsidies have not stopped, and investors who have turned from the Internet industry to enter have poured in. This group of capital still bears a strong imprint of interconnected thinking logic. They pay more attention to whether the team is "bright" and whether the story logic is "reasonable". They dream that the company can grow explosively and go public in three years, and are not sensitive to valuation. But they completely ignored one point. This is a manufacturing industry completely different from the Internet ecosystem. We should respect the basic development law of manufacturing industry

first of all, the manufacturing industry has its own special development laws and industry characteristics. Any team or individual with attainments in the manufacturing industry has at least more than ten years of experience in the industry, has stepped on countless pits, suffered countless losses, and has a deep understanding and cognition of the industry. Only such a team can truly have strong combat effectiveness, This is completely different from the Internet industry, which can create miracles with one idea. Therefore, the average age of entrepreneurial teams in the manufacturing industry is over 35 years old. They have just stepped out of universities or research institutes, and they have no industrial experience and experience. It is a dream to claim to dominate the industry. However, due to the traditional characteristics of the industry, practitioners are basically in a state of isolation from capital and have no understanding of capital and its operation. Because capital has no knowledge of the industry before, it still has an inherent mindset. The information asymmetry of double injection pressure according to the type of injection machine, material temperature, shape and size of plastic parts, and the selection Party of mold pouring system has reached a high degree. Some investors prefer to look for the so-called "excellent team", that is, young people with famous school background and bright resume. These young people are active in thinking, familiar with capital, familiar with the ways of capital market, can tell languages and stories that can excite investors, and pretend to be what capital likes; The team with real strength usually seems to have neither star aura or high education, nor understand capital. It's like "chicken talking with duck", so most of the final choice of capital is the former team, which is also an investment judgment based on prior knowledge, which is no different from carving a boat and seeking a sword. As everyone knows, even Yaskawa, one of the "big four", has at least one-third of its employees graduated from Japanese Colleges and universities, and the rest are mostly college graduates. Doctors are almost rare, which is a typical structure of employees in manufacturing companies

secondly, the 2B characteristics of the downstream of industrial robots and the dispersion of "long tail" customers make the early stage of market development quite difficult, and even industry veterans need time. Before gradually establishing its market position and entering the fast track, it is an optimistic estimate to wait for three to five years. In other words, the story of "sudden wealth" cannot happen here. At this time, valuation becomes very important. The application of overvalued values in industries without high explosive growth is a disaster. It can be predicted with great certainty that in three to five years at most, all kinds of overvalued "Red Companies" in the industrial robot industry and the visual industry, which have been popular in the capital market recently, will basically disappear, and investors will either learn how to treat this previously unfamiliar industry and continue to climb and roll after paying enough tuition fees; Or quit the industry directly. At this time, the industry will pay for the overnight Carnival brought by this batch of immature capital. This damage is not unilateral, but two-way, not only for the company, but also for the industry

in terms of the company, the above capital does not understand the characteristics of the industry, places unrealistic high expectations on the growth rate of the company, and pays an overvalued value, which inevitably means that capital will exert considerable pressure on the company, because the essence of capital is still profit seeking, especially the profit seeking tendency of short-term capital will be more obvious. When it is found that the growth of the company is not as expected, this pressure will further lead to the deformation of the company's actions, the inability to well implement its own strategies and tactics, and the company's lack of hematopoietic ability. It can only rely on constantly telling stories to obtain round after round of higher financing valuations and alleviate the huge pressure from the previous round of investors. However, the story cannot last long after all. Once the company fails to make corresponding progress within the limited time that investors can wait, and the capital also sees the essence of the industry and gradually returns to rationality, the foam will burst at this time

in the industry, it is difficult for blindly entering capital to invest in the right entity enterprises, and absurd valuation will lead some "red" companies to obtain a lot of capital when they have neither technology nor market. If such mismatched funds are only consumed by start-ups, the damage is not too great. At most, it will increase the cost of obtaining talents in the industry. However, if companies use funds to expand wantonly in the industry, dig corners everywhere, or engage in vicious competition at low prices, the damage to the industry will not be slightest. Moreover, from previous observations, such companies lack technology and market capacity, After getting the money, the above actions are bound to be carried out. This will not only make the naturally developed excellent companies in the industry face vicious competition and affect their normal development, but also this practice of killing thousands of enemies and injuring 800 will inevitably lead to the spread of vicious competition in the whole industry, dragging the normally developing industry into the quagmire and seriously damaging its vitality. And the more capital intensive industries enter, the more frequently such things happen, so doing evil to the industry's capital is the real big trouble. For important applications in the industrial robot industry, this negative impact may be more obvious. This is mainly because the industrial robot industry is a capital intensive industry, which has a huge demand for capital, and the impact of capital can be huge, both positive and negative. In this industry background, excellent companies in the industry must actively learn knowledge related to capital, contact capital, understand capital, and be good at making good use of capital. They cannot be complacent, otherwise it is easy to see the effect of bad money driving out good money. In fact, a large number of capital foam have appeared in the industrial robot industry now. If it is allowed to develop, the prospect of the industry is worrying. Once the foam bursts, industry companies will suffer extensive damage, and the development of the entire industry will lag behind for at least three to five years

but we should see that capital is a double-edged sword. If we can make good use of capital, it will not cause damage to the industry, but will greatly accelerate the development of the industry. Capital has no good or bad attributes. The key is to see where it is used. Whether it is the large amount of R & D investment required by various enterprises to expand production or improve technical capacity, there is a strong demand for capital. Even in the second stage in the future, the upstream, middle and downstream of the industrial chain, from parts to ontology to integration, will inevitably achieve industrial integration, upgrading and repositioning through a large number of mergers and acquisitions, in which capital will play a very important role

in the future, "danger" and "opportunity" coexist, and the industrial robot industry should not repeat the low price dead end of many other domestic industries, learning from the past and covering the future

at present, the downstream market of industrial robots in China has not been fully opened, and ontology manufacturers still repeat a large number of low-quality and low-cost products in some single categories and applications, crushing each other. Therefore, if we do not find another way to find a better blue ocean market and dessert, it is difficult for the ultimate winner in the ontology field to be an active player in the current market share. For parts manufacturers, both controllers and reducers are at a staggering start-up stage, which requires a lot of research and development investment. They all measure the output pulse number of the photoelectric encoder to obtain the displacement of the beam, so as to shorten the distance with international giants. If the downstream blindly suppresses the profit space and cannot invest in R & D, the products will naturally not be further improved, which means that the downstream ontology can only fight at low prices in some applications with low requirements and low barriers, thus entering a vicious cycle, and may even directly destroy the fledgling industrial robot industry in China. The current industrial robot market is like a dangerous chess game. All players, no matter how beautiful they are at present, if they can't jump out of the current low-cost competition, the future is likely to be a mistake and lose the whole game. At present, the key to solving the situation is in the hands of ontology companies, looking for terminal pain point applications with stronger payment ability, opening up blue ocean markets in different application scenarios, jumping out of the inertial thinking of low-cost competition, leaving enough profit space for upstream component manufacturers to perform their respective duties

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